True Weight uses a Kalman filter to find your real weight behind the daily noise. A moving average smooths data with a fixed window. This filter adapts to your data instead. It gives you a 95% confidence range around every estimate. It also shows your rate of change, with its own confidence band.
Why it beats a moving average:
- Confidence range. Every estimate shows how reliable it is. A moving average gives you one number with no sense of trust.
- Adaptive window. The filter sets its own smoothing level based on your measurement noise. No fixed 7-day or 14-day choice.
- No lag. A moving average trails reality by half its window. This filter removes that lag using all your data.
- Rate of change. The model estimates how fast your weight is trending, with its own confidence band.
Enter one reading a day and the chart shows your true weight with 95% confidence bands and rate of change.